• ARRL Propagation Bulletin

    From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Mon Dec 28 17:36:00 2020
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP52
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA December 28, 2020
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP052
    ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

    Merry Christmas.

    Sunspots went missing last Friday and Saturday, but large new
    sunspot group 2794 appeared on Sunday, December 21, and on Wednesday Spaceweather.com reported new sunspot group 2795 emerging over our
    Sun's southeastern limb.

    This disappearance depressed the average weekly sunspot number,
    which went from 17.4 last week to 10.3 this week, ending on
    Wednesday, December 23. Our reporting week runs from Thursday
    through Wednesday.

    In spite of lower sunspot numbers, the average daily solar flux
    increased slightly from 82.1 to 82.8.

    Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 7.3, and
    average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.3 to 6. These are
    still low numbers, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions, so 160
    meter propagation remains good, also aided by lower seasonal
    atmospheric noise as winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 88 on December 25 to
    30, 86 on December 31, 84 on January 1 to 6, 82 on January 7 to 12,
    84 on January 13 to 20, and 86 on January 21 to 23.

    Predicted geomagnetic indicators for the same period has planetary A
    index at 15 and 8 on December 25 and 26, 5 on December 27 through
    January 4, 10 on January 5 and 6, 5 on January 7 to 12, 8 on January
    13, 5 on January 14 to 16, then 12, 8 and 18 on January 17 to 19,
    then 15, 10, 8 and 3 on January 20 and 23.

    The OK1HH geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 25,
    2020 til January 19, 2021:

    "Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: January 4, 12 to 14
    Quiet to unsettled on: December 28 to 31, January 1 to 3, 15
    Quiet to active on: December 25 to 27, January 6, 8, 10 and 11, 16
    Unsettled to active: January 2, 5, 7, 9, 17, 19
    Active to disturbed: January 18

    Solar wind will intensify on: December (25,) 27 (28 and 29,)
    (January 1 to 3, 7 and 9, 18,) 19

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are
    ambiguous and changing indications.

    I wish you a blessed Christmas, positive thinking and negative
    tests."

    Steve, NN4X reported working a VK and a ZL via 15 meter long path
    around 1915 UTC on December 23 using FT8. NN4X is in Florida,
    southeast of Orlando. His antenna (two stacked 6 element Yagis) is
    highly directional, so he has no doubt this was long path. He was
    also heard at 3D2 and KH6. He writes, "I've been a ham since 1977,
    and this stuff never gets boring."

    Check out his impressive array of antennas listed on his QRZ.com
    page. He sent a pskreporter screenshot showing he was copied all
    over the world, except Asia.

    Jeff, N8II wrote on December 19:

    "Today, we had 2 contests. The RAC and 9A CW (Croatia, everybody
    works everybody). 15 was a bit marginal into western Canada, but I
    worked MB, SK, AB, and BC plus several VE3's on backscatter. 15
    meters was open to Southern and Central EU at the 1400 UTC 9A CW
    start, but with few loud signals. By 1500 UTC most activity
    disappeared. 20 meter signals were loud from both eastern and
    western Canada and Europe, with the band starting to close around
    1615 UTC. My last EU QSOs were with Geoff, GM8OFQ in the Orkney
    Islands (S9+10db) and Tom G1IZQ (S9 with QSB) just after 1700 UTC.

    Signals from EU have been weaker and openings much shorter on 15
    meters in general this past week due to the drop in solar activity.
    One day I had a QSO with a loud Norwegian who was S9 around 1400
    UTC, but in general most signals have been from southern EU.

    Our sunsets are already later here by 3 minutes, but sunrises will
    get later until about December 31 due to the elliptical orbit of the
    Earth, so openings to the East will get later."

    Tamitha Skov's latest: https://bit.ly/3aIEWKq

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 17 through 23, 2020 were 12, 0, 0, 11,
    11, 11, and 27, with a mean of 10.3. 10.7 cm flux was 81.6, 80.5,
    81.7, 83.8, 79.6, 85.8, and 86.4, with a mean of 82.8. Estimated
    planetary A indices were 2, 3, 5, 4, 12, 13, and 12, with a mean of
    7.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 4, 4, 8, 11, and 11, with a
    mean of 6.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)
  • From Daryl Stout@618:250/33 to All on Fri Jan 1 22:39:04 2021
    SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
    ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

    ZCZC AP01
    QST de W1AW
    Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001
    From Tad Cook, K7RA
    Seattle, WA January 2, 2021
    To all radio amateurs

    SB PROP ARL ARLP001
    ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

    Sunspot cycle 25 is progressing normally, and with the new year my
    outlook is optimistic. Solar minimum occurred only a bit more than
    a year ago (December 2019) and now we see very few days with no
    sunspots.

    Average daily sunspot number over this past week was 27.1, and a
    week ago the average was just 10.3. Average daily solar flux rose
    from 82.8 to 86.4.

    Predicted solar flux over the next 30 days is 81 and 80 on January 1
    and 2, 79 on January 3 and 4, 78 on January 5 to 8, then jumping to
    84 on January 9 to 14, then 85, 86 and 87 on January 15 to 17, 88 on
    January 18 to 28, 87 on January 29 and 86 on January 30. It then
    dips to 84 on February 1 to 10.

    Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 1 and 2, 8 and 5 on
    January 3 and 4, 8 on January 5 to 7, 5 on January 8 to 17, 10 on
    January 18 to 20, 8 on January 21, 5 on January 22 to 24, 10 on
    January 25, and 5 on January 26 to 30.

    Both the current sunspot groups (2794 and 2795) are about to slip
    across the sun's western horizon.

    When I check https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ for any possible coming
    activity, I don't see anything obvious, but do not be surprised if
    new activity appears soon, perhaps before mid-January along with the
    predicted higher flux values.

    From OK1HH:

    "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 1 to 26, 2021

    Geomagnetic field will be
    Quiet on: January 1, 3, 13 and 14
    Quiet to unsettled on: January 2, 4, 8, 10, 12, 15 and 16, 21, 25
    and 26
    Quiet to active on: January 5 to 7, 9, 11, 17, 22 and 23
    Unsettled to active: January 20, 24
    Active to disturbed: January 18 and 19

    Solar wind will intensify on: (January 1 to 3, 7 to 9, 19 and 20,)
    21 and 22, (23, 25 and 26)

    Remarks:
    - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
    - The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are
    ambiguous and changing indications.

    Wishing Happy New Year, positive thinking and negative tests.

    F. K. Janda, OK1HH from Czech Propagation Interested Group compiling
    these geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978".

    Ted Leaf, K6HI of Kona, Hawaii sent this, another optimistic report
    on new cycle 25:

    https://bit.ly/2XdqaUd

    More on the NCAR prediction and the solar clock:

    https://bit.ly/2MkHVyt

    For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
    Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
    explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

    An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
    information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

    Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
    bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

    Sunspot numbers for December 24 through 30, 2020 were 25, 30, 31,
    26, 26, 26, and 26, with a mean of 27.1. 10.7 cm flux was 87.4,
    87.7, 87.9, 87.8, 87.2, 84.2, and 82.8, with a mean of 86.4.
    Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, and 9, with a
    mean of 6.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 3, 4, 6, 5, and 6,
    with a mean of 5.
    NNNN
    /EX
    --- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
    * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (618:250/33)